Seed Score Case Study
SPORTSDESK - The WIAA girls basketball playoffs begin in just two weeks, with seed assignments announced on Sunday. In today’s seed case study we look at Pittsville and Greenwood in D5. We are assuming our knowledge of the existing formula using many years of research and comprehension while comparing to historical seeding outcomes.
Before we begin, a reminder. The mathematical formula that the basketball coaches association agreed to prior to the 2020/2021 season includes a heavy component of strength of schedule blended with overall win percentage. It does not consider what division your opponent is in, margin of victory, conference championships, or weight a single game higher than any others. To put the last factor in different words; if Team A beat Team B, Team B can still be seeded higher than Team A. The formula considers all games played in a total book of work and results in a cumulative score.
Got it? Good. Let’s begin.
Factual Basis
The Pittsville Panthers, coached by Jason Knott, have ran their record to an impressive 16-3 overall, 7-1 in the Central Wisconsin South conference. Their opponents have posted a win percentage of .452 and the 16 defeated opponents have won .359% of their games.
The Greenwood Indians, coached by Trevor Wuethrich, sit at 15-6 overall. The win total, with three games yet to be played, is more than the last three years combined. Greenwood sits in second place in the Cloverbelt East conference. A win tonight at Columbus would clinch second place for the Indians which would result in a high-water mark not seen in more than 20 years. Greenwood’s opponents have a win percentage of .520 and defeated opponents have won .437% of their games.
Seed Projection Today
Pittsville - 2 (seed score 580)
Greenwood - 3 (seed score 573)
Why
Pittsville’s strength of schedule is weaker than Greenwood’s, although currently the Panthers boast a win percentage that is 13 points higher (.842 vs .714).
Pittsville has two games remaining on the schedule prior to seed assignment; Pacelli (19-1) and Wild Rose (14-6). Greenwood has the above mentioned game at Columbus (9-12). Looking at strength of schedule alone in these games, a sizable advantage goes to Pittsville.
Usually this late in the season, a strength of schedule boost for a team like Pittsville would be a clinching factor.
But
Assuming Greenwood defeats Columbus Catholic tonight then things get very interesting. But, if Columbus beats Greenwood in Marshfield Tuesday night then the two seed is owned by Pittsville regardless of their two remaining outcomes.
For conversation sake, we’ll assume Greenwood wins tonight. Pittsville would then need to beat Pacelli tonight regardless of its Friday outcome against Wild Rose to claim the two line.
Should Greenwood beat Columbus and Pittsville beat Pacelli only, it would give Pittsville a seed score of 578 while Greenwood lands at 577. A Greenwood win and a Pittsville loss to Pacelli sinks the Panthers to a three with a seed score max of 573.
Essentially, another Pittsville loss combined with a Greenwood win negates Pittsville’s win% advantage and slides down one line due to its inferior overall strength of schedule.
An advantage of a two seed? Yep, the two seed hosts the three in a potential regional final match-up. Should both Pittsville and Greenwood advance to the regional final, it will be a fun game to watch regardless of location.
VIP
See current bracket projections for all girls basketball teams statewide at zaleskisports.com/vip
Watch
Watch Pittsville at Pacelli and Greenwood at Columbus Catholic Tuesday 7:15pm on zaleskisports.com.